Super El Niño Forecast to Impact Thai Economy Through 2027

According to a report by Krungsri Research, Thailand is facing the onset of a 'Super El Niño' phenomenon that began in the second quarter of 2026. The research estimates that this extreme weather event could reduce Thailand's GDP by 0.9% and result in economic damages exceeding 100 billion baht through 2027.

The report highlights significant risks to agricultural output. In 2026, crops such as rice, cassava, and palm oil are expected to suffer, while rice, sugarcane, and palm oil are identified as vulnerable in 2027. These disruptions are projected to ripple through the food and beverage processing industries, as well as the hospitality and service sectors, due to raw material shortages.

For residents and travelers, the primary concern is the potential for rising inflation. The scarcity of agricultural products is expected to drive up the prices of essential goods, including rice, sugar, vegetable oil, and fresh produce. Krungsri Research anticipates that these supply chain pressures could increase inflation by 0.09% to 0.12% above the baseline in 2026. While the research provides a clear outlook on potential economic strain, the exact severity of the weather impact on specific regions and the long-term duration of price volatility remain subject to ongoing climate developments.