Thailand's 2026 Credit Outlook: SMEs and Retail Lending Face Continued Contraction

According to a report by Prachachat Business citing the Kasikorn Research Center, Thailand’s credit landscape for 2026 is expected to remain constrained. Analysts project that lending for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and retail consumers will continue to experience negative growth. While the overall banking sector might achieve a modest growth rate of 0.5%, this is largely attributed to the stability of large corporate loans rather than broader economic expansion.

For residents and those managing finances in Thailand, the report highlights a bifurcated market. While home loans and personal loans are expected to remain stable, credit card spending and hire-purchase agreements—commonly used for vehicle financing—are anticipated to continue their downward trend. Conversely, vehicle registration-backed loans remain a resilient segment, with institutions like TTB actively expanding their presence in this area.

For expatriates and residents, this trend suggests that access to traditional consumer credit may remain tight throughout the coming year. Those relying on credit cards or vehicle financing should prepare for continued institutional caution. It remains to be confirmed how individual banks will adjust their specific risk appetites and whether the projected 0.5% growth will be sufficient to stabilize the broader financial sector as the year progresses.