Economy
SCB Financial Markets Forecasts Thai Baht Volatility Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
SCB Financial Markets predicts short-term fluctuations for the Thai Baht, citing ongoing Middle East tensions and US economic factors.
On August 7, 2026, SCB Financial Markets (SCB FM) released an analysis regarding the volatility of the Thai Baht. According to the report, the currency has experienced significant fluctuations over the past month, driven by the conflict in the Middle East, interventions in the Japanese Yen, and shifting gold prices.
In the short term, SCB FM anticipates the Baht may face downward pressure, projecting a range of 33.30 to 33.80 Baht per US dollar. Analysts warn that if the conflict between the US and Iran escalates and impacts energy markets, the currency could potentially weaken to 34 Baht per dollar. Conversely, if the conflict de-escalates and the US Federal Reserve maintains current interest rates, the Baht could see a slight strengthening toward the end of the year.
For residents and travelers, this volatility may influence the cost of imported goods and travel expenses. While SCB FM notes that the risk of a major 'carry trade' unwind remains low due to diversified funding strategies among investors, the situation remains fluid. The potential for improvement in Thailand’s trade deficit by year-end is also being monitored. As of now, the final trajectory of the currency depends heavily on the resolution of regional conflicts and future US monetary policy decisions, both of which remain subject to change.