Kasikorn Research Center Raises 2026 Thailand Tourism Forecast

According to a report by Khaosod Online, the Kasikorn Research Center has revised its 2026 forecast for foreign tourist arrivals in Thailand, raising the estimate to 31.36 million visitors. This adjustment follows an earlier projection of 30 million made in April. The center anticipates that tourism revenue could reach 1.54 trillion baht by the end of the year.

Data from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports indicates that between January 1 and August 8, 2026, Thailand welcomed 19.15 million foreign tourists, representing a 2.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. The research center attributes this decline to several factors, including geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, heightened international tourism competition, and global economic challenges affecting travel plans.

For travelers and residents, the outlook for the final quarter of 2026 appears more optimistic. The center suggests that if Middle Eastern conflicts do not escalate and airspace remains open, there could be a resurgence in arrivals from Europe and the Middle East during the peak travel season. Additionally, airfare prices on several routes are beginning to stabilize, and airlines are increasingly offering promotional campaigns to stimulate demand. Whether these projections materialize remains dependent on global stability and the continued recovery of international flight connectivity.